{
  "date": "2026-08-05",
  "score": 22,
  "score_precise": 21.519,
  "zone": "Unfavorable",
  "version": "1.0",
  "pillars_used": 6,
  "pillars_total": 7,
  "weights_nominal": {
    "real_rates": 25,
    "entry_price": 20,
    "structural_demand": 15,
    "dollar": 10,
    "positioning": 10,
    "volatility": 10,
    "premiums": 0.0
  },
  "weights_effective": {
    "real_rates": 27.7778,
    "entry_price": 22.2222,
    "structural_demand": 16.6667,
    "dollar": 11.1111,
    "positioning": 11.1111,
    "volatility": 11.1111,
    "premiums": 0.0
  },
  "pillars": {
    "real_rates": {
      "name": "real_rates",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 3.95,
      "latest_date": "2026-08-03",
      "latest_value": 2.41,
      "unit": "%",
      "source": "TIPS 10Y (H.15)",
      "frequency": "daily",
      "staleness_days": 2,
      "stale_limit_days": 7,
      "history_points": 5900,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "notes": "Lower real rates historically preceded better long-term gold returns (EVIDENCE-BASE.md \u00a71). 2022+ regime break published separately.",
      "weight_nominal": 25,
      "weight_effective": 27.7778,
      "evidence_grade": "strong (documented 2022 regime-break caveat)",
      "staleness_flag": "fresh"
    },
    "entry_price": {
      "name": "entry_price",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 23.82,
      "latest_date": "2026-07-31",
      "latest_value": 4073.0,
      "unit": "USD/toz (WB monthly)",
      "source": "World Bank Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0)",
      "frequency": "monthly",
      "staleness_days": 5,
      "stale_limit_days": 45,
      "history_points": 799,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "sub_signals": {
        "trend": {
          "subscore": 46.82,
          "dev_vs_12m_ma_pct": -2.54,
          "return_12m_pct": 25.78,
          "ma_window": "12 months (monthly proxy for 200dma; daily gold history not in pipeline v1)",
          "spot_used_usd_toz": 4201.19
        },
        "valuation": {
          "subscore": 0.82,
          "real_price_percentile": 99.18,
          "deflator": "US CPI-U (CUSR0000SA0), same-month",
          "reference": "Erb & Harvey golden constant"
        }
      },
      "weight_nominal": 20,
      "weight_effective": 22.2222,
      "evidence_grade": "strong (Moskowitz\u2013Ooi\u2013Pedersen momentum; Erb\u2013Harvey valuation)",
      "staleness_flag": "fresh"
    },
    "structural_demand": {
      "name": "structural_demand",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 44.09,
      "latest_date": "2026-08-04",
      "latest_value": null,
      "unit": "12m change of holdings",
      "source": "IMF IRFCL (CB) + SPDR GLD tonnes (ETF, internal)",
      "frequency": "mixed",
      "staleness_days": 1,
      "stale_limit_days": 45,
      "history_points": 300,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "sub_signals": {
        "cb_purchases": {
          "available": true,
          "subscore": 36.17,
          "percentile": 36.17,
          "change_12m_pct": 0.475,
          "latest_date": "2026-06-30",
          "prior_date": "2025-06-30",
          "staleness_days": 36,
          "history_points": 300
        },
        "etf_flows": {
          "available": true,
          "subscore": 52.0,
          "percentile": 52.0,
          "change_12m_pct": 5.708,
          "latest_date": "2026-08-04",
          "prior_date": "2025-08-04",
          "staleness_days": 1,
          "history_points": 250
        }
      },
      "weight_nominal": 15,
      "weight_effective": 16.6667,
      "evidence_grade": "strong for central banks, weak for ETF flows",
      "staleness_flag": "fresh"
    },
    "dollar": {
      "name": "dollar",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 36.36,
      "latest_date": "2026-07-31",
      "latest_value": 120.6247,
      "unit": "index (H.10 broad)",
      "source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.10)",
      "frequency": "daily",
      "staleness_days": 5,
      "stale_limit_days": 7,
      "history_points": 5159,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "notes": "Numeraire caveat (Pukthuanthong\u2013Roll) published on /methodology/.",
      "weight_nominal": 10,
      "weight_effective": 11.1111,
      "evidence_grade": "moderate (numeraire caveat)",
      "staleness_flag": "aging"
    },
    "positioning": {
      "name": "positioning",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 21.84,
      "latest_date": "2026-07-28",
      "latest_value": 24.3802,
      "unit": "% of open interest",
      "source": "CFTC COT disaggregated, managed money (Socrata kh3c-gbw2)",
      "frequency": "weekly",
      "staleness_days": 8,
      "stale_limit_days": 10,
      "history_points": 1051,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "notes": "Contrarian orientation applied across the full percentile range; effective signal concentrates at extremes.",
      "weight_nominal": 10,
      "weight_effective": 11.1111,
      "evidence_grade": "weak-to-moderate (contrarian at extremes only)",
      "staleness_flag": "aging"
    },
    "volatility": {
      "name": "volatility",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 11.82,
      "percentile": 88.18,
      "latest_date": "2026-08-04",
      "staleness_days": 1,
      "stale_limit_days": 7,
      "history_points": 4242,
      "source": "Cboe Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) \u2014 internal-only per DATA-RIGHTS.md",
      "frequency": "daily",
      "publishable_raw": false,
      "notes": "Percentile rank is non-reversible without our full internal history (DATA-RIGHTS hard constraint). Raw GVZ values are not published.",
      "weight_nominal": 10,
      "weight_effective": 11.1111,
      "evidence_grade": "weak \u2014 risk/entry-quality gauge with no predictive claim",
      "staleness_flag": "fresh"
    },
    "premiums": {
      "name": "premiums",
      "available": false,
      "reason": "insufficient history (2 days < 90)",
      "latest_date": "2026-08-05",
      "latest_premium_pct": 1.096,
      "history_days": 2,
      "note": "Pillar is being observed but not scored until 90-day history threshold is met.",
      "weight_nominal": 0.0,
      "weight_effective": 0.0,
      "evidence_grade": "cost argument incontestable; predictive value anecdotal",
      "staleness_flag": "dropped"
    }
  }
}