The Gold US dollar
Gold is priced in US dollars. When the dollar weakens against a broad basket of other currencies, the same amount of foreign purchasing power buys more ounces, and the dollar price of gold tends to rise. This pillar measures where the broad trade-weighted dollar sits today against its own long history.
- Weight
- 10%
- Effective weight
- 11.1%
- Source
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.10)
- Frequency
- daily
- Latest date
- 2026-07-31
- Latest value
- 120.6247 index (H.10 broad)
- Staleness
- aging (5d / limit 7d)
- Evidence grade
- moderate (numeraire caveat)
Gold is priced in US dollars. When the dollar weakens against a broad basket of other currencies, the same amount of foreign purchasing power buys more ounces, and the dollar price of gold tends to rise. This pillar measures where the broad trade-weighted dollar sits today against its own long history.
What it measures
The Federal Reserve broad dollar index (H.10 statistical release), as a level percentile plus its 12-month change.
Why it moves gold
The numeraire effect is a documented, largely mechanical relationship: any asset priced in dollars moves partly with the dollar. Pukthuanthong and Roll (2011) show gold is negatively correlated with essentially every currency, which is the definition of a numeraire effect rather than a directional signal.
Today's reading
Today the US-dollar pillar reads 36/100, below the historical median.
Notes: Numeraire caveat (Pukthuanthong–Roll) published on /methodology/.
How it is scored
Percentile rank of the broad dollar index level, then inverted so that a low dollar level and a negative 12-month change push the sub-score higher.
Orientation. A weak or falling US dollar raises the sub-score. A strong or rising dollar lowers it.
Evidence
- Capie, Mills, and Wood (2005): long-run inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar, driven partly by gold's role as a hedge against a specific currency.
- Reboredo (2013): dollar-gold co-movement studied via copulas, confirming the sign and disclosing tail dependence.
- Pukthuanthong and Roll (2011): gold is negatively correlated with every major currency, not only the dollar. The dollar signal is largely a numeraire effect and is disclosed as such.
Caveat
Evidence grade: moderate. The numeraire caveat is published: gold is negative versus essentially all currencies, so a weak dollar is not always the same signal it appears to be for a US-based buyer. The pillar carries a moderate 10% weight for that reason.
Seller-side note
For a US-quoted physical seller, dollar direction cancels out: the numeraire caveat applies symmetrically. Non-US sellers should read the pillar in their own currency's cross with the dollar, not the dollar index alone.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), H.10. See the methodology page for the composite formula and the provenance page for the per-source status board.