The Gold Signals
Seven measured conditions build the composite score. Each has its own page: today's reading, the measurement, the evidence, and the pillar's history.
- Real rates 25% 4/100 today
Inflation-adjusted 10-year yield. Lower real rates historically preceded better long-term gold returns; 2022 regime break disclosed.
- Entry price 20% 24/100 today
Blends price trend against a 12-month moving average with an inflation-adjusted valuation gauge (Erb and Harvey).
- Structural demand 15% 44/100 today
Central bank net purchases (IMF IRFCL) plus ETF flows (SPDR GLD holdings).
- US dollar 10% 36/100 today aging
Broad trade-weighted dollar percentile plus 12-month change. Numeraire caveat published.
- Positioning 10% 22/100 today aging
Managed-money net length as a percent of open interest (CFTC COT), contrarian at extremes only.
- Volatility 10% 12/100 today
Gold volatility index (GVZ) percentile. Presented as a risk/entry-quality gauge, no predictive claim.
- Retail premiums 0% unavailable dropped
The Gold Barometer Retail Premium Index (own daily data, multi-dealer median). Ramps in as history accrues.