The Gold Barometer
Daily reading · August 5, 2026 · Methodology v1.0

Is Now the Right Time to Buy Gold?

As of August 5, 2026, The Gold Barometer reads 22 out of 100. Gold buying conditions are Unfavorable, measured against every trading day since 1971.

VERY UNFAVORABLEUNFAVORABLEMIXEDFAVORABLEVERY FAVORABLE020406080100THE GOLD BAROMETERGOLD BUYING CONDITIONS · SINCE 1971METHODOLOGY V1.0 · US MARKET
22/100
UNFAVORABLE
Today · 22 Seven days ago · 22 Gap: +0 in 7 days

Two hands, like a ship's barometer: the thin steel hand stays where the reading stood last week. The gap between the hands is the trend.

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The seven conditions on the dial

Each condition is today's value ranked within its own full history: 0 is the worst percentile a long-term buyer has ever faced, 100 the best. Weights and evidence grades are public.

Real rates
25%
Entry price
20%
Structural demand
15%
US dollar
10%
aging
Positioning
10%
aging
Volatility
10%
Retail premiums
0%
dropped
+8.6%
median 12-month gold return from the unfavorable zone, 1971 to present
174
monthly observations of this zone since 1971
-1.8%
median maximum drawdown within one year from this zone
Daily readings published since Aug 20261
Reconstructed history (monthly, backtest)82
Revisions0
Methodologyv1.0, unchanged
Sources live6 of 7

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Common questions

Is now a good time to buy gold?

As of August 5, 2026, The Gold Barometer reads 22/100: Unfavorable. The Gold Barometer is a measurement instrument, not investment advice. Its methodology, weights, and full 1971-onwards history are public.

How much gold should I own?

The Gold Barometer takes no position on allocation. It measures buying conditions today against every reading since 1971. Allocation is covered on the how-much-gold-in-portfolio page and depends on the investor, not on the reading.

Should I dollar-cost average into gold?

The backtest publishes DCA versus lump-sum outcomes per score zone. See the history page for the current zone comparison and the methodology page for the DCA rule used.

What is the downside of owning gold?

Gold pays no yield and its price can fall for extended periods. The backtest publishes the median drawdown observed within a year and within five years for every zone.

Has gold bottomed?

The Gold Barometer does not predict bottoms. It reports where today sits relative to every trading day since 1971 across seven measured conditions, and what those conditions preceded on average.

Is gold overvalued at current prices?

The entry-price pillar includes a valuation sub-signal, the inflation-adjusted price versus its long-run average (Erb and Harvey golden constant). Its current percentile is published on the entry-price signal page.